Mylblogist

 As we move deeper into 2025, the global economy is facing growing uncertainties that are reshaping financial markets and business dynamics worldwide. The escalating trade tensions between the US and China have significantly disrupted international trade flows, while geopolitical conflicts in regions like West Asia and Eastern Europe are adding even more complexity. At the same time, global demand has weakened, leading to softer crude oil prices, which are in turn influencing inflation trends across economies. According to the UN Trade and Development Agency, there are signs of a looming global slowdown, with projected growth falling from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025. Looking back, the 2018–2019 period saw similar challenges when the US imposed tariffs, triggering ripple effects in India: the rupee weakened, inflation rose, and lenders tightened credit policies, especially in sectors sensitive to global movements. Today’s trade dynamics echo those past pressures, particularly give...

 As tensions between India and Pakistan rise once again, Pakistan is expected to ramp up its defence spending over the next two to four years, potentially triggering a renewed arms race in South Asia. A Moneycontrol analysis reveals that while India typically takes a measured approach in its military responses, Pakistan historically responds to such escalations with sharp increases in defence expenditure. World Bank data highlights this pattern. In 2016, Pakistan’s annual growth in defence spending had slowed to single digits, but after India’s Uri surgical strikes in 2016, the country’s military expenditure growth surged to 14.1% in 2017. By 2018, defence spending had soared by 17.5% compared to the previous year — the steepest rise in seven years. A similar trend played out after the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Pakistan’s defence allocation rose from a 13.4% increase in 2008 to 17.1% in 2009. Over the subsequent four years, defence spending rose at an average annual rate of 17.4%. Lo...

 As tensions between India and Pakistan escalate once again, concerns are mounting over the potential economic consequences of extended military action. However, historical evidence from the 1999 Kargil conflict suggests that India’s economy has the resilience to withstand such shocks. During the Kargil War, India's economy remained largely unaffected, ultimately outperforming expectations. According to a Moneycontrol analysis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had projected a growth rate of 5.2% in May 1999, just before the conflict began. By October, amid the ongoing war, the IMF revised its forecast upward to 5.7%. Ultimately, the Indian economy grew by 6.8% that year—well above both estimates. The trend continued in 2000. The IMF increased its forecast from 5.1% in May to 5.5% in October, with actual growth reaching 6% by the end of the year. This pattern highlights the Indian economy’s ability to remain stable and even thrive in the face of geopolitical tensions.

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