Pakistan Poised for Defence Spending Surge Over Next 2–4 Years Amid Rising India Tensions

 As tensions between India and Pakistan rise once again, Pakistan is expected to ramp up its defence spending over the next two to four years, potentially triggering a renewed arms race in South Asia. A Moneycontrol analysis reveals that while India typically takes a measured approach in its military responses, Pakistan historically responds to such escalations with sharp increases in defence expenditure.




World Bank data highlights this pattern. In 2016, Pakistan’s annual growth in defence spending had slowed to single digits, but after India’s Uri surgical strikes in 2016, the country’s military expenditure growth surged to 14.1% in 2017. By 2018, defence spending had soared by 17.5% compared to the previous year — the steepest rise in seven years.

A similar trend played out after the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Pakistan’s defence allocation rose from a 13.4% increase in 2008 to 17.1% in 2009. Over the subsequent four years, defence spending rose at an average annual rate of 17.4%.

Looking further back, the Kashmir Valley tensions in 2000 and the Indian Parliament attack in 2001 triggered another surge, with Pakistan’s defence spending increasing by 11.4% per year between 2000 and 2004, notably higher than the 6.6% annual growth seen in the previous five years.

If history repeats itself, Pakistan’s defence budget is poised for another multi-year surge, further intensifying the military competition between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

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